What makes a livable city? Vancouver has it all figured out.

What makes a livable city? It isn’t traffic congestion, that’s for sure. Gordon Price, former Vancouver city council member, offered a look at an alternative.

Using historic photographs of several American cities, he showed the differences in street use 100 years ago and today. “Streets had a lot of pedestrians who could use it when they wanted to,” he said, showing a photo of Detroit. The image included people walking freely among the few cars and a horse-drawn wagon. “Now streets are dominated by cars,” he said, switching to a photo of the same location today. “It’s all because of ‘Motordom’ – an alliance of auto clubs, dealerships, and manufacturers that created a socially reconstructed purpose for streets.”

Rather than allow streets to be convenient for people, the alliance repurposed them for vehicles. To do that, they began a campaign to publicize the number of people that could be killed, the number of accidents, the number of jaywalkers, and other statistics designed to worry the population. By the 1920s, streets were transformed as roadways for cars, and the cities were accommodating them.

Then in 1942, a Transportation Planning Handbook was published for transportation engineers. It laid out the standards for “designing an efficient, free, rapid flow of traffic.” It was all about allowing vehicles to move faster, without pedestrians in the way. This was the Utopian vision for the future.

A decade later, the Eisenhower Interstate System became the world’s biggest public works project. These highways were promoted by stating that a driver could go X number of miles without ever encountering a traffic light. In fact, he said, today you can drive from Tijuana up to the Canadian border without hitting light. “The first one is probably when you come into Vancouver,” he said.

With the car came suburbia, which was supported by a network of arterials, cheap energy, abundant service land, continuous safe water, low-cost insured money, and the technology to make it all work. Today, there’s only one real choice for moving around – cars. Urban planning is now automobile dependent, and urban form follows parking! Now, he said, we do sprawl big time.

Gordon challenged the audience to name one urban area where a multitude of cars can exist and still have free-flowing traffic. Have we ever reached that Utopia envisioned in 1942? The fact remains that creating car-dependent communities still has not produced one livable city.

But the city of Vancouver handled it differently. No freeways traverse its urban core, even though they were proposed many times and in multiple configurations. “But not having arterials running through Vancouver has not affected the city’s livability,” Gordon said. “Instead, we induced congestion and made it our friend. It’s not easy to drive around the city. People can do it if they wish, but it becomes so inconvenient that they prefer transit. Pedestrians, bikes, blades, and transit have a higher priority than the single-occupant vehicle.”

Vancouver wants to be pedestrian friendly. Streets move at a walking speed. There’s a transit network of streetcars. Along those trunk lines are jobs and housing. A few cities in the US have had similar success by building along streetcar lines, such as parts of Washington DC and Arlington VA.

To be successful in this endeavor, cities must incorporate sufficient density, a good mixed use with proximity, good design, and transportation choices. In the last five years, Vancouver saw a 13% drop in car use and a 55% increase in alternatives. Counter to what one would expect, commute times have actually dropped.

“We’ve bucked the national trend,” Gordon said. “And we did it without taking away people’s cars. We just gave them more choices.”

In fact, with the 2010 Olympics, Vancouver had a great controlled traffic experiment. Through efficient use of transit and discouraging car traffic in the central district, the city reduced that traffic by 30%, SkyTrain had 290,000 passengers (nearly three times more than the expected 100,000), and other transit systems saw similar spikes. “We blew everything away,” Gordon said. “We proved that Vancouver can be a successful post-Motordom city.”

The concept of Motordom drove out other choices and made cities vulnerable to the vagaries of fuel prices and other factors beyond their control. After the Deepwater Horizon explosion and the ensuing environmental disaster, where can we go? How much more will we sacrifice just to keep our cars running? That’s a question only we can answer as we make our personal transportation choices, as we vote for transportation policies, and as we make use of our public funds.

For more insight into Gordon Price’s ideas, go here

APTA president Bill Millar opens the Rail Conference in Vancouver

After a stand-up continental breakfast, APTA president Bill Millar opened the general session to a packed ballroom at the conference hotel here in Vancouver. He provided a lively “state of the rail industry” address, noting that it was a challenging year – but that it was full of successes to balance it out. For one example, he pointed to the number of commuter rail line extensions around the US, and he praised President Obama for supporting high-speed and inter-city rail. “It’s very important to build links among the urban and industrialized areas,” he said.

He noted that transit ridership is down overall, but not by much. Sixty percent of commuter rides are work-related, and with the economy in trouble, there are fewer jobs. A recent APTA survey showed that 59% of responding businesses had to cut jobs, and that even more were still planning to do so.

Interestingly, Canada is having the opposite trend – transit ridership is up. I personally don’t know why that is so, but I sense that the Canadians haven’t built their economy on the automobile as much as Americans have. So in a time of energy conservation, they already have the transit infrastructure to carry them through. But if anyone has other thoughts, please feel free to post them here.

Bill also mentioned a new Senate bill (S3412) that will provide emergency funding for transit operations. However, it has a long way to go through the legislative process, and if it is passed, it may not end up as originally written.

In the end, APTA’s “Holy Grail” is another transportation authorization to follow the now-expired SAFETEA-LU. “It expired in September and then was extended until December 2010,” he said. “I really don’t expect any movement on a new authorization until next year.”

He would like to see $123 billion invested in public transit to expand and improve systems and to make it easier for people to use.

Mattie “MP” Carter, APTA board chair and commissioner of the Memphis transit authority, emphasized the importance of workforce development so new leaders can replace those who are set to retire in the next few years.

She also noted that British Columbia and the state of Washington have signed a memo of understanding (MOU) to create a cross-border high-speed rail (HSR) system. Already, Canada has expanded its commitment to rail, as evidenced by the cities of Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary (which has a wind-powered transit), and Vancouver (with its driverless SkyTrain).

Peter Rogoff, administrator of the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), said that the key to HSR success is to connect the links so it becomes part of an integrated system, along with commuter rail, bus rapid transit, and other modes. “But we must ensure good maintenance as well as expansion of new systems,” he said. “We must provide good transit especially for those who must use it because they have no cars, they don’t know how to drive, they aren’t able to drive, or for other reasons. Without good transit, these people may lose their jobs, their places at day care centers, their schooling, and other necessities.”

He noted that there is a prevalence of transit-dependent populations in central urban areas. Will we respect all those citizens and their right to mobility?

Tomorrow, I'll ride the SkyTrain and report back.

Donna Maurillo Is Writing from the APTA Rail Conference

Vancouver BC is the ideal city for a rail conference. This is a metropolis that loves transit, and I plan to ride the famous driverless Sky Rail tomorrow, which connects much of the city.

Yesterday I attended APTA's High-Speed Rail Committee meeting, which has been renamed the High-Speed and Inter-City Passenger Rail Committee to better reflect its focus on a network of urban transportation systems. The meeting attracted an overflowing crowd of more than 150, requiring that the movable walls be opened into the adjoining room.

Outgoing chair Rod Diridon Sr., who also is executive director of MTI, handed the gavel to the newly-elected board leaders. They include chair Jolene Molitoris, director of the Ohio Department of Transportation; vice-chair Chuck Wochele, a vice president with Alstom Corporation; and secretary Nazih Haddad, COO of the Florida Rail Enterprise, which is part of the Florida DOT.

Karen Rae, deputy administrator of the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), addressed the group, telling them that the FRA will focus on building rail capacity much faster and it will streamline its funding process.

APTA president Bill Millar, whose charisma and booming voice always command attention, thanked everyone for working to implement President Obama's simple request to keep high-speed rail (HSR) moving forward. Bill emphasized that HSR requires many ideas, groups and perspectives to carry it to successful implementation. Rod Diridon added that HSR is part of the President's goal to move the USA toward a green transportation policy and to promote environmental issues and sustainable transportation.

A World Congress on High-Speed Rail is set for Beijing from December 6-9 this year. The venue is adjacent to the most recognizable facilities from the Beijing Olympics.

MTI Expert Says Mumbai Derailment Could Have Serious Implications for Rail Security Worldwide

India has suffered the most numerous attacks, but terrorists can take lessons from these and apply them in other countries.

San Jose, Calif., May 29, 2010 –Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) counter-terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins says that the Mumbai train derailment two days ago could point to a growing trend in India. But it also could have serious implications for other countries. Terrorists make note of methods, taking lessons from all attempts, whether successful or not. These lessons could be applied to other systems.

At the same time, transportation security and counter-terrorism experts must take their own lessons so they can create safer and more secure systems in their countries.

Sabotage of the rail line sent the Calcutta-to-Mumbai express hurtling off the tracks into the path of an oncoming freight train, killing more than 100 people and injuring scores of others. According to Indian police, a Maoist guerrilla group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Earlier in May, Maoist guerrillas in India’s Chhattisgarh State detonated a mine under a passenger bus, killing 44.

“The threat seems to be growing, with at least 30 deliberate derailments in India since January 2000, almost four times the number of derailments in the 1990s, and 15 times the number of incidents in the 1980s,” said Mr. Jenkins, director of MTI’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. “The death toll between 2000 and 2010 is 13 times greater than that in the 1990s, although, owing to two bloody incidents, it is only slightly greater than the 1980s.”

MTI will be examining this case and other recent attacks in India to see what lessons might be learned and how these may be applied to other countries.

According to MTI’s comprehensive database of attacks on surface transportation, this death toll makes the May 28 derailment India’s worst terrorist attack on passenger rail since 2006, and its bloodiest deliberate derailment in decades. On July 11, 2006 terrorists detonated seven bombs on Mumbai’s crowded commuter trains, killing 207 people and injuring hundreds of others. The last comparable derailment occurred in 1989, when sabotage derailed the Bangalore-Delhi Express killing 67.

A recent MTI report on deliberate derailments, Off the Rails: The 1995 Attempted Derailing of the French TGV (High Speed Train) and Quantitative Analysis of 181 Rail Sabotage Attempts by Mr. Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth, and Jean-François Clair, shows India’s rail system suffering the most terrorists derailments with 42 incidents or 23 percent of the total number of such incidents. According to MTI’s database, India also leads the world in the number of terrorist bomb attacks against train and bus targets with 387 incidents since 1970, or 17 percent of the total.

Mr. Jenkins flew to Mumbai in September 2009 at the invitation of Indian officials to discuss surface transportation security issues, and he will return to India later this year. MTI also briefed Indian officials visiting the U.S. in January 2010.

The report may be downloaded at no cost from this link.

ABOUT BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS

Brian Michael Jenkins is an international authority on terrorism and sophisticated crime. He directs MTI’s research on protecting surface transportation against terrorist attacks. He is also a senior advisor to the president of RAND. From 1989-98, Mr. Jenkins was deputy chairman of Kroll Associates, an international investigative and consulting firm. Before that, he was chairman of RAND’s Political Science Department, where he also directed research on political violence.

MTI Presents “Funding the Transportation System of the Future"

Mineta Transportation Institute Presents
“Funding the Transportation System of the Future: What's Possible in the Current Anti-Tax Climate?”

Friday, June 25, 2010
8:30am Continental breakfast
9-11am Panel discussion

Commonwealth Club
595 Market Street
Second Floor
San Francisco

FREE!! It also will be recorded for later broadcast on NPR Radio.

Moderator --
Hon. Rod Diridon Sr., Executive Director, Mineta Transportation Institute

Expert Panel --
- Dr. Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Director, MTI’s National Finance Research Center
- William Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association
- Hon. John Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
- Hon. Alan Lowenthal, California State Senator

Within the next two decades, the census bureau estimates that the U.S. population will increase by as many as 50 million people, including more than a 25% increase in California’s population alone. This population growth, combined with a growing backlog of overdue maintenance work on roads and transit systems, creates a need for significantly expanded transportation revenues. However, the current political climate is generally unfavorable to tax increases. Given these political realities, what new or expanded revenue sources could be generated for transportation? In particular, what options will be politically feasible in the short and medium term? Our panel of transportation experts, representing viewpoints from the national and state level, will discuss possible revenue options and their likely reception from the public and legislators.

For more information -- http://tickets.commonwealthclub.org/auto_choose_ga.asp?area=1&shcode=1775

Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

Donna Maurillo, MTI's Communications Director, has been attending the 2010 conference of the American Society of Public Administrators, where she has been blogging.

I attended the morning session about lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina. This had less to do with the storm itself and more to do with planning and processes for recovery. With New Orleans still recovering five years later, there were many recommendations about how to do it better.

First, the best way is to mitigate beforehand. Communities that are prepared will suffer less and recover faster. The “social cost” is rarely accounted for – breakup of neighborhoods, losing family and friends, losing cultural identity, etc. And what are roles of NGOs such as the Red Cross? They are rarely included in government disaster plans, yet they play a significant role.

It was surprising to hear that New Orleans has not reached even the halfway point in its recovery. In part, this is because the city was not adequately prepared. The residents were accustomed to being displaced for 3-4 days, but not for weeks, months or years. FEMA disbursements have been slow, or they are given with restrictions that make little sense because government processes are too broad to fit specific situations. More flexibility would help significantly. Contractors also should be pre-screened for post-disaster work so decisions are not made at the last minute. Performance standards should promote accuracy; many contractor estimates were far below the actual cost. Disaster aid must be given rapidly and it should be outcome-based.

These recommendations, and many others, were given by those who had lived through Katrina or who had worked with the processes. This allowed the session to offer detailed and specific recommendations for improved recovery plans.

http://aspanational.wordpress.com/2010/04/09/lessons-from-katrina/

MTI’s Counter-Terrorism Expert Asks if a Moscow-type Transit Attack Could Happen in the U.S

Public transit’s “open system” leaves it vulnerable, even though many planned attacks have been prevented, says Brian Michael Jenkins

San Jose, Calif., March 29, 2010 – Officials at the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) say that the deadly subway attacks in Moscow today underscore the inherent vulnerability of public surface transportation. MTI says that, while the U.S. understandably devotes most of its security resources to protecting commercial airliners, Americans must understand that terrorists do the bulk of their killing on trains and buses. The organization’s database currently documents more than 2,000 separate attacks on surface transportation – 1,223 involving bombs and incendiaries – since 1970. These attacks caused 6,190 deaths and approximately 19,000 injuries.

“In 2004, two female suicide bombers brought down two airliners in Russia, killing 88 people,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a counter-terrorism expert who directs MTI’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (NTSCOE). “But since 9/11, terrorist bombers in Russia carried out 65 attacks on trains and buses, killing 273 people and injuring 649.”

Mr. Jenkins says that global statistics are even more dramatic. Available data indicates 125 deaths from eight attacks on airliners and commercial airports outside of war zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan since 9/11. However, during this same time there have been nearly 700 attacks on surface transportation, causing 2,500 deaths and nearly 10,000 injuries. These figures derive from a new database that MTI’s NTSCOE is developing.

Could it happen here?

In 1997, New York City police interrupted a terrorist plot to carry out a suicide bombing on the city’s subway system. In 2003, authorities discovered a terrorist cell in Bahrain planning a chemical attack on that same subway system. Law enforcement also prevented attacks planned in 2004 to bomb the Herald Square Station in mid-town Manhattan, in 2006 for subway tunnels under the Hudson River, in 2008 for the Long Island Railroad, and just this year on the New York subway system.

“Easy access, confined environments, and large concentrations of people enhance the effectiveness of explosives and unconventional weapons,” Mr. Jenkins says. “That and the terror created by attacking city lifelines make public surface transportation an attractive target for terrorists who are determined to kill in quantity and without discrimination. These are not symbolic attacks meant as protests. They are lethal assaults meant to kill.”

He pointed out similar attacks on Madrid’s commuter trains, on London’s subways and a bus, and seven bombs on Mumbai’s commuter trains. In total, 452 people were killed and 3,000 were injured.

Mr. Jenkins says that public surface transportation is difficult to protect because it is an open system. Large volumes of passengers, the need to avoid long delays, and limited resources rule out imposing an aviation security model. In addition, surface transportation commands only a small fraction of what the federal government spends on aviation security. Cities, too, are strapped for cash.

Unlike aviation security, which is regulated and run by the federal government, Mr. Jenkins says, surface transportation security is a local matter. System operators have increased closed-circuit television surveillance, deployed more security personnel, and taken other steps in accord with local perceptions of threat.

“While 100 percent passenger screening is unrealistic, some systems have implemented selective passenger screening, where some randomly selected passengers voluntarily submit their bags and backpacks for brief inspection,” says Mr. Jenkins. “In a diverse society extremely sensitive to profiling and privacy protection, selective screening must be carefully planned and closely managed to maintain public acceptance. However, it remains a useful option where, as in the wake of the Moscow attacks, subway and train systems are taking security up a notch to discourage copycats and malicious pranksters and to reassure passengers.”

Mr. Jenkins says that passengers themselves can play an important role in protecting themselves on transit. First, they should not over-react. Public surface transportation remains safer than the most risky thing they are likely to do – drive an automobile. Passengers also have a right to expect security and a responsibility to respect security measures. Regular riders also recognize routine activities on their routes, and they know what doesn’t fit. They should promptly report packages, bags, and other objects left behind, as well as any suspicious activity. And they should be prepared to give an accurate description of suspects and events. Cell phone cameras can be especially useful.

How selective screening works is the subject of three recent MTI reports, Selective Screening of Rail Passengers; Rail Passenger Selective Screening Summit; and Supplement to MTI Study on Selective Passenger Screening in the Mass Transit Rail Environment. Each of these may be downloaded at no cost from the active links, or go to www.mti.sjsu.edu, click on “Research” and “Publications,” then scroll down for the reports.

ABOUT BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS

Mr. Jenkins is an international authority on terrorism and sophisticated crime. He directs MTI’s research on protecting surface transportation against terrorist attacks. He is also a senior advisor to the president of RAND. From 1989-98, Mr. Jenkins was deputy chairman of Kroll Associates, an international investigative and consulting firm. Before that, he was chairman of RAND’s Political Science Department, where he also directed research on political violence.

He has a BA in fine arts and a Masters Degree in history, both from UCLA. He studied in Mexico and Guatemala, where he was a Fulbright Fellow and received a fellowship from the Organization of American States. Mr. Jenkins was a paratrooper and a captain in the Green Berets, serving in Vietnam and the Dominican Republic. He returned to Vietnam as a member of the Long Range Planning Task Group, receiving the Department of the Army's highest award for his service. He authored several articles, reports and books, including International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict and Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Report on Historic Resources Information Management in Large Transportation Agencies

Research Associate Eric Ingbar has documented the ways to create uniform, enterprise-wide information management for cultural resources

SAN JOSE, Calif., March 29 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published A Case Study of Enterprise Historic Resources Information Management in Large Transportation Agencies. The study, conducted by information systems professional Eric E. Ingbar, defines how California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) district office information systems for historic resources can and cannot be used to create an agency-wide information management model for those resources. The results range from findings specific to Caltrans and its district offices to general findings that can apply to any transportation agency considering an enterprise-wide system for managing cultural resources.

Every transportation agency in the nation manages historic resources, including historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, buildings, structures, objects, routes, landscapes, and districts. The goal is to prevent damage and to mitigate unavoidable damage. To track known resources, transportation agencies often keep local files in many forms, rely upon external information sources (e.g. state-level historic preservation agencies), and depend upon local staff expertise.

"Enterprise systems are generally more efficient than individual office systems within the same organization," said Mr. Ingbar. "First, staff time and effort can be minimized because training, procedures, and workflow follow a single model. Agency staff can move from one office to another without re-training. Second, because information is stored and presented in consistent, appropriate ways, the work is more efficient. Unique pockets of information become more widely available, and redundancy is eliminated. Third, technical support time and costs can be reduced because a single infrastructure is maintained, rather than multiple computer systems."

Drawbacks also exist. Because the nature of these systems is to make information more uniform, locally valuable data may be lost. Individuals may feel forced to abandon tried-and-true work methods to conform to a computer system. Changing the system may become more difficult as software and procedures become larger and less easy to alter. And enterprise systems can be jeopardized if long-term support for them declines or is removed. This is especially hazardous to enterprise systems that appear to offer little operational benefit.

The free report can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click "Research" and then "Publications." Scroll down to the report.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eric E. Ingbar is a professional archaeologist and cultural resource specialist. He is a founding principal of Gnomon, Inc., a firm specializing in creating, implementing, and maintaining information systems for managing resources and infrastructure, including cultural resources, other natural resources, and proposed land uses. Mr. Ingbar and Gnomon, Inc. are primary IT consultants to many state historic preservation offices, creators of the successful large-scale pilot use of GPS and GIS within Caltrans, consultant to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for multi-agency data sharing and nationwide technical assistance, and recipients of multiple successful agency automation and study projects. He also advises two Federal Highways projects pertaining to cultural resources information automation and environmental streamlining. He earned his BA in social anthropology, with honors, from Swarthmore College in 1979, and his MA in anthropology, with honors, from the University of New Mexico in 1983.

Feb. 26, 1870: New York City Blows Subway Opportunity

1870: Inventor Alfred Ely Beach opens New York City’s first subway line, a pneumatic demonstration project in a 300-foot tunnel under Broadway.

Beach first demonstrated pneumatic transit at the 1867 American Institute Fair, and sought to build a pneumatic transit system underground to relieve surface-level congestion with a system consisting of, in Beach’s words, merely "a tube, a car, a revolving fan!"

Beach obtained permission in 1868 to build a large package-delivery tunnel under Broadway, but secretly began work on a demonstration passenger-transit system, complete with a luxuriously appointed station and passenger car.

Read the rest of the story at wired.com here.

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Emergency Management Handbook for State-Level Transportation Agencies

Edwards and Goodrich provide specific guidance and management techniques to aid emergency planning staff to create DHS-compliant systems.

San Jose, Calif., March 15, 2010 – The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published a Handbook of Emergency Management for State-Level Transportation Agencies. It addresses plans and systems mandated by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that may be applied to the state-level transportation agencies’ disaster response systems to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Specific guidance and management techniques are provided to aid emergency planning staff to create DHS-compliant systems.

State transportation agencies are required to have plans for continuity of government (COG) functions during any catastrophic disaster, as well as for continuity of operations (COOP) – continuing the essential services that they provide to citizens, government, other state agencies, and federal partners during response, recovery and mitigation phases of emergency management. These augment a state’s Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), which addresses “normal” emergencies.

“This research project was intended to lay the groundwork for establishing priorities that would lead to a mature management capability for emergencies, disasters and catastrophes,” said Frances Edwards, PhD, director of the Master of Public Administration program at San José State University. “While transportation agencies may have significant experience with ‘normal’ emergencies on the roadways, and they may work routinely with state police and fire agencies in disaster situations, this handbook will help them level up to meet DHS requirements.”

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) retained a team of emergency management research associates with significant professional experience in emergency management from the Mineta Transportation Institute’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. The team reviewed California’s first COG and COOP plans and advised Caltrans on additions and revisions to the agency’s COG and COOP plans. All this is in keeping with the latest federal guidelines and with the lessons learned from Caltrans’ participation in the 2008 Golden Guardian emergency exercises.

The handbook emphasizes that open, clear and safe roadways are essential so first responders and other emergency teams can reach their destinations. Sample chapters include “The Role of the Emergency Services Manager in a State Transportation Agency,” “The Role of the Department of Transportation Headquarters EOC,” and “The Hierarchy of Emergency Plans.”

The free handbook can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click “Research” and then “Publications.” Scroll down to the reports.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

FRANCES L. EDWARDS, MUP, PhD, CEM
Dr. Edwards is director of the Master of Public Administration program and professor of political science at San José State University. She is also a research associate of the Mineta Transportation Institute at SJSU, and she teaches emergency management in the Master of Science inTransportation Management program. In 2009 she was appointed U.S. chair for the European Union CAST Project for the development of unified training for first responders. Her most recent research has been in global supply chain security. She is recognized internationally as an emergency management and security expert. Dr. Edwards was director of the Office of Emergency Services in San José, California for 14 years, including one year as acting assistant chief, San José Fire Department. She has a PhD in public administration, a Master of urban planning, and an MA in political science (international relations).

DANIEL C. GOODRICH, MPA, CEM
Mr. Goodrich is an emergency preparedness coordinator for Lockheed Martin Corporation and an instructor and research associate for the Mineta Transportation Institute at San José State University, where he also teaches security for transportation managers. He was selected as a 2006 Fellow of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and studied Muslim terrorism in Israel at Tel Aviv University. He is a recognized expert in security and emergency response. Mr. Goodrich served in the US Marine Corps for ten years, including leadership positions in Security Forces. He holds a Master of Public Administration from San José State University and is a Certified Emergency Manager.

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Study on Linking Highway Improvements to Changes in Land Use

Funderburg, Nixon, and Boarnet study three California counties to develop a better forecasting tool for transportation decision making

San Jose, Calif., March 15, 2010 – The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published Linking Highway Improvements to Changes in Land Use with Quasi-Experimental Research Design: A Better Forecasting Tool for Transportation Decision-making, which studies the ability of quasi-experimental matching techniques to address differing contexts associated with potential highway improvements and extension projects in forecasts of regional growth. This report incorporates popular regional growth forecasting models into a quasi-experimental research design that directly relates new highway investments in three California counties to changes in population and employment location, while controlling for no-build historical counterfactuals.

The strategy permits a comparison of the before-and-after tests for effects of investments on economic growth and land use in three regions that contrast how increased highway access affects development patterns. The study includes an urban center in Santa Clara County, an exurban region in Orange County, and a small town in Merced County. The need for forecasts to account for what would happen to land use in the absence of a project came to the forefront in 1997 when a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the Environmental Impact Statement for a proposed Illinois toll road was deficient because growth projections were the same in the build and no-build scenarios.

“We find that traditional forecast approaches, which lack explicit control selection, can lead to erroneous conclusions about an impact,” said Hilary Nixon, PhD, an assistant professor of urban and regional planning at San José State University. “Our forecasting tool should improve the quality and reliability of Environmental Impact Statements.”

The report’s central finding is that, while improvements in surface transportation tend to have large impacts on growth patterns, the nature of the effects is materially dependent on the context of the highway investment. The report’s models estimate that, on average, a statistically and economically significant 338 to 11,103 new Orange County jobs occurred within a typical census tract in the county’s formerly exurban region after gaining highway access when compared to no-build counterfactuals. On the other hand, the models predict a starkly different outcome as a result of a highway bypass built outside the small town of Livingston in Merced County, where the researchers found an economically and statistically significant 12 to 83 job losses per square kilometer that might be anticipated had the bypass not been built. They found no significant effects on population or employment growth that can be attributed to the new highway investments near the urban center of Santa Clara County.

Policy implications from this analysis are potentially significant, particularly as it relates to the environmental review process. The research results suggest that context is important and that the impacts on population and employment growth from infrastructure improvements are not necessarily consistent from one geographic region to another, nor from one type of project to another. As seen in the Illinois case (Sierra Club v. United States DOT, 1997), documenting the potential impact is an essential component of the review process, and better models are needed to forecast changes.

The free report can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click “Research” and then “Publications.” Scroll down to the reports.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

RICHARD G. FUNDERBURG, PhD
Dr. Funderburg is assistant professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Iowa. His research investigates an array of factors that attract economic activities to both developing and advantaged regions. He earned a PhD in planning, policy, and design from University of California, Irvine and he holds MPPA and BA degrees from California State University.

HILARY NIXON, PhD
Dr. Nixon is an assistant professor of urban and regional planning at San José State University. Her research and teaching interests in environmental planning and policy focus on the relationship between environmental attitudes and behavior, particularly related to waste management, and linkages between transportation and the environment. She has a BA from the University of Rochester in environmental management and a PhD in planning, policy, and design from the University of California, Irvine.

MARLON G. BOARNET, PhD
Dr. Boarnet is professor of planning, policy, and design and economics at the University of California, Irvine, where he has been on faculty since 1991. Previously, he was chair of the Department of Planning, Policy, and Design at UC Irvine. He earned a PhD from Princeton University. His research focuses on the inter- and intra-metropolitan distribution of economic activity, the links between transportation policy and economic development, local economic development policy, and land use. He is widely published and serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Planning Literature and Papers in Regional Science.

News Release

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Study on Motor Carrier Hazmat Transport Theft and Its Possible Use in Terrorism

Jenkins, Butterworth, et al studied the most effective ways that safety/security measures can be leveraged for anti-terrorism

San Jose, Calif., February 17, 2010 – The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI), has published Report 09-03, Potential Terrorist Uses of Highway-Borne Hazardous Materials, which evaluates security risks created by truck-borne hazardous materials, particularly gasoline tankers. The Department of Homeland Security requested the report from MTI’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (MTI’s NTSCOE). It is authored by Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth, along with Douglas Reeves, Billy Poe and Karl S. Shrum.

MTI has also issued a companion report, MTI Report 09-04, Implementation and Development of Vehicle Tracking and Immobilization Technologies, a study by Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce Butterworth, and Dr. Frances Edwards. It details specific developments in tracking and immobilization technology that can increase security.

“We consider gasoline tankers, and to a lesser extent, propane tankers to be the most attractive options for terrorists seeking to use highway-borne hazmat because they can create intense fires in public assemblies and residential properties,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, Director of MTI’s NTSCOE. “We strongly urge that DHS, State governments and the industry take a renewed look at flammable liquids and gases as a weapon of opportunity, and at a strategy to improve security measures and technology.”

The peer-reviewed reports came from a review of terrorist objectives, hazardous materials, and potential targets. The reports conclude that terrorists most often seek soft targets that yield significant casualties. They also prefer attacking public buildings and assemblies. Terrorists more often choose simple operations promising modest consequences rather than complex and uncertain operations promising catastrophic ones. Terrorists have also discussed substituting fire for harder-to-acquire explosives. Gasoline tankers have greater appeal because they can easily produce intense fires, operate in target-rich environments with predictable routes, and pose few security challenges.

The report urges that the government, which has focused more on hazmat that can cause catastrophic losses, also focus – as terrorists tend to – on the most readily available, least protected hazmat. The report calls for a clear strategy to increase and sustain security, and for resolving significant jurisdictional issues between federal and state authorities; strengthening hazmat security measures in the field; and implementing vehicle tracking technologies, panic alarms, and immobilization capabilities for vehicles carrying specific hazardous materials, including gasoline. These measures also offer safety and anti-crime benefits.

The free reports can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click “Research” and then “Publications.” Scroll down to the reports.

ABOUT THE PRINCIPAL AUTHORS:

BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS, PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

Mr. Jenkins is an international authority on terrorism and sophisticated crime. He directs MTI’s research on protecting surface transportation against terrorist attacks. He is also a senior advisor to the president of RAND. From 1989-98, Mr. Jenkins was deputy chairman of Kroll Associates, an international investigative and consulting firm. Before that, he was chairman of RAND’s Political Science Department, where he also directed research on political violence.

He has a BA in fine arts and an MA in history, both from UCLA. He studied in Mexico and Guatemala, where he was a Fulbright Fellow and received a fellowship from the Organization of American States. Mr. Jenkins was a paratrooper and a captain in the Green Berets, serving in Vietnam and the Dominican Republic. He authored several articles, reports and books, including International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict and Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

BRUCE R. BUTTERWORTH

Mr. Butterworth has had a distinguished government career, working at congressional, senior policy, and operational levels. With Brian Michael Jenkins he co-authored Selective Screening of Rail Passengers (MTI Report 06-07), published by the Mineta Transportation Institute in February 2007. He also co-authored a May 2007 study, Keeping Bombs Off Planes: Securing Air Cargo, Aviations Soft Underbelly with P.J. Crowley, senior fellow and director of Homeland Security at the Center for American Progress. Mr. Butterworth was awarded an MS degree from the London School of Economics in 1974 and a BA degree from the University of the Pacific in 1972.

Emergency Exercise for Train Rescues

Dr. Frances Edwards, one of MTI's faculty members for the Master of Science in Transportation Mangement, wrote this item for the American Society for Public Administration's Section on Emergency and Crisis Management's professional newsletter, Emergency Management Dispatch.

"San Jose's two commuter railroads - ACE Train (Altamont Commuter Express) and Caltrain (serving San Jose to San Francisco corridor) - worked with San Jose Fire Department and the local ambulance provider to hold an emergency preparedness exercise on Saturday, December 12, 2009. The exercise was supported by the DHS Transportation Security Grant program.

"The scenario was a train collision, necessitating gaining emergency access to the cars using the emergency windows, and then triaging and treating patients in the cars, then extricating them through the windows and doors. The interior of the cars have narrow walkways, and some cars are two levels, creating rescue challenges. Patients then had to transported using rolling carts and skeds to the treatment and transportation area at street level, above the railroad embankment.

"Mineta Transportation Institute Research Associate Dan Goodrich provided consultation services during exercise development, and Dan and Frannie Edwards, MTI's Deputy Director for DHS' National Transportation Security Center of Excellence, served as observers during the exercise. Over 100 public safety personnel from San Jose Fire Department and several mutual aid departments participated. Volunteer victims came from the Fire Explorer program of San Jose Fire Department."

Critical Mass Ruling in NY Could Move West

By: Mike Aldax
San Francisco Examiner
February 17, 2010

A court decision in New York City that may create strict restrictions on the Critical Mass bicycle event raises questions as to whether San Francisco could do the same.

A judge ruled Tuesday that New York City can force groups of 50 people or more on bicycles to get a parade permit, a process known to be cumbersome.

The legal battle stemmed from a clash between cyclists and police in 2004 during the Republican National Convention in which hundreds of bicyclists were arrested for alleged unruly behavior.

After the incident, the New York City Police Department sought stricter enforcement on Critical Mass, a group cycling event that clogs up busy city roadways on the last Friday evening of every month. The event started in San Francisco in 1992 and is now mimicked in cities around the world.

Participants argued restrictions infringed upon their First Amendment constitutional rights. However, the judge wrote in his ruling that “their lack of predictability and their tendency to try to stay together in a moving column, even if this means going through a red light … endanger other travelers and disrupt orderly traffic flow.”

Supporters of The City’s Critical Mass say they are wary that the legal decision in New York will inspire a similar push for restrictions here.

“There is always a chance that somebody is going to try to crack down,” said Chris Carlsson, a longtime San Francisco participant who co-authors a blog about Critical Mass.

Last month, police Chief George Gascón expressed dissatisfaction with the bike protest, saying he had been fielding complaints from drivers and bicyclists since becoming chief in August. The Police Department launched a review of the event, he said.

Mayor Gavin Newsom has repeatedly cautioned that the potential backlash from a major crackdown would not be worth the hassle.

The Mayor’s Office “hasn’t had a chance to review the [New York City] ruling to decide if it would apply here or whether we would even want it to,” Newsom press secretary Tony Winnicker said Tuesday.

Hugh d’Andrade, co-author with Carlsson and a longtime event participant, said new crackdown efforts would ultimately fail.

maldax@sfexaminer.com

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Traffic Fines as Cash Cow

It may be a good way to raise revenue, but planners should think carefully before imposing outrageous fines for relatively minor violations.

LA Times Editorial, February 6, 2010

If you're caught running a red light in Los Angeles, be prepared to shell out $446, up from $271 eight years ago. Make a rolling right turn at a stoplight and the ticket comes to $381 -- more than double what it cost in 2008. Park at an expired meter, pay a $50 fine.

It's getting so a person can't even drive badly in this town anymore.

Officials have been jacking up traffic fines recently as a budget crunch encourages creative methods of raising municipal revenue. Not only are fines going up, but the city is considering ways to nab more people to pay them. Times staff writer Rich Connell reports that discussions are underway at City Hall to double the number of intersections outfitted with red-light cameras to 64. Meanwhile, L.A. and other cities are lobbying the Legislature to let them put the "boot" on cars when their owners have as few as three outstanding parking tickets, rather than the current minimum of five. By recovering more overdue ticket money, the city could raise an estimated $61 million.

The state wants a piece of the ticketing action too. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's budget proposal contains a novel scheme to adapt red-light cameras to bust drivers for speeding as well as running lights. Most of these systems have the ability to measure a vehicle's speed, but state law doesn't allow cities and counties to use them for speed citations. The governor wants to change that and send 85% of the ticket proceeds to Sacramento.

Raising traffic fines has become attractive to politicians because, unlike hiking taxes, it seldom attracts much opposition. That's OK by us, but it's possible to raise fines to the point that they're grossly disproportionate to the infraction. We're getting perilously close to that level in L.A., and in some cases have probably exceeded it.

As a matter of principle, it's usually smart to tax socially destructive behavior such as bad driving; not only are there social benefits (fewer accidents), but public services get an important source of funding, and people who object to paying can avoid doing so simply by driving more responsibly. But when punishments don't fit the crime, it encourages public cynicism and lawless behavior. For a low-income driver, a $500 traffic fine -- the cost of running a red light in L.A.

There's some evidence that red-light cameras improve safety at intersections, so we're not bothered by plans to put up more. And if the city can collar parking ticket scofflaws and raise needed funds by booting cars more often, then boot away. Planners should think carefully, though, before imposing outrageous fines for relatively minor traffic violations. when traffic school is factored in -- is a devastating expense. Some people will break more laws to avoid paying it.

Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

Women, Transit, and the Perception of Safety

(This article about MTI researcher Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris discusses her recent research report. It appears online at http://www.planetizen.com/node/42878)

11 February 2010
by Tim Halbur, Planetizen

Transit agencies are failing to bring women into the planning process, according to a new report from the Mineta Transportation Institute. We talked with UCLA's Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris, author of the study, about what she uncovered in her research and strategies for improving the perception of safety on transit for women.

Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris is no stranger to the issue of safety and transit. In 1998, she authored a study with her colleague Robin Liggett looking at 120 bus stops around Los Angeles and found significant links between environmental attributes and crime. But her latest study goes beyond the actual crime statistics to look at fear itself. What makes women riders feel unsafe, and thus decide not to ride transit? We talked to Loukaitou-Sideris about this fascinating study.

LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS: In many parts of the world, women rely on public transportation more than men. And women are more fearful than men being out in public spaces. This study looks at women's particular needs as transit riders, especially in respect to safety and security. What are they afraid of? What are the issue they are facing? But the other part of the study has to do with how these needs are being met, or not met. And then finally, are there any innovative solutions?

I did a number of surveys with national groups that are advocating for women's issues, and a nationwide survey of all transit agencies throughout the U.S. that have more than 50 public transportation vehicles. Almost every state was represented. And the findings were revealing: While 2/3rds of respondents believed that women travelers have some specific needs, only 1/3rd felt that transit agencies should really do something about it. The most shocking part of that survey was that only 3% of the agencies had any programs for women.

In terms of the interviews, women have significant concerns about riding transit, and there is a mismatch between the practices of transportation agencies and some of the wishes of women riders. For example, women are much more scared waiting at the bus stop or transit station than within the enclosed space of the transit vehicle. Yet most transportation safety resources are concentrated on the vehicle. Women were also not comforted knowing that there was a camera or CCT technology. They were not against it, but they felt that if anything happened to them the camera would only help after the event, not during. So they were much more in favor of more policing, human solutions rather than technological solutions. Yet the trend is towards more technology, not less. We found a lot of these sorts of mismatches between policy and what women want.

We also found that other countries are doing much more. Particularly I'm talking about the U.K., Australia and Canada, that have all incorporated women's voices into transportation planning. And the report talks about some of these efforts from the grassroots level to the institutional level that respond to women’s needs.

PLANETIZEN: It's not surprising to me that cameras aren't found effective when it comes to perceived safety. What were some strategies that you found are the most effective?

LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS: Well, when you're dealing with issues of crime or the fear of crime, there's not one solution. It's a combination of things, ranging from where you choose to locate your bus stops – so that they are in settings that enable natural surveillance, that they have good lighting – but also how you connect the different parts of your transportation system.

For example, you have a station platform that is well lit and there are a lot of people around. But if you have to park at the park-and-ride lot and walk to the platform, the walk may be dark. Oftentimes, women are scared of parking lots. So they range from locational issues and design issues to policy issues like having dedicated spaces for women drivers nearby security kiosks. Some other countries have "request stop" programs at night, where women can ask the bus driver to stop where it is safer for them instead of just at the designated bus stop.

I’m not against technological solutions. Buttons that one can press to summon police or connect to 911 if one feel victimized are useful. Women talked about trying to minimize the time when they wait for the bus, so "next bus" or "next train" signs are good. There's a combination of things that transportation agencies should use.

PLANETIZEN: There is obviously a difference here between actual crime statistics and what this report looks at, which is fear and feelings of safety. Did you look at the difference between the two?

First of all, it is two different things. But ultimately what matters for transportation agencies is if people, both men and women, are fearful. If people perceive an area as dangerous, they won’t take the bus or the train, no matter what the hard statistics say. So perception of fear, in my view, is as significant as the reality.

Second, there is a tremendous underreporting of crime from women on sexual harassment and assault. So the hard data about crime don't show the whole story. And I'm not talking necessarily about what the FBI calls "type 1" crime, which is the most serious crime. What oftentimes scares is a whole category of crime that involves groping and sexual harassment. Women are quite intimidated to report these kinds of crimes, it is difficult to report, and there is a perception that there is not much that the police can do. And these types of crime really intimidate women transit riders, and leads them to avoid certain transit modes or use them only during specific times of the day or only when they are accompanied. If you only look at the hard data, you don’t see that.

And transit agencies have to do something about this, because after all, 51% of their users are women. So even from the standpoint of expanding the transit market, it is a real issue.

PLANETIZEN: Did you also look at the demographics of the transportation agencies themselves? I assume they are overwhelmingly male.

LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS: The people we asked to survey from the transportation agencies were the general managers and the heads of security, and 75% of the respondents were men. Which I would say is indicative of the field, and certainly at higher administrative levels you find more men than women. This may be one of many explanations of why transit agencies here in the U.S. have not really looked at this issue. If you look into Japan, or Mexico, Brazil, the countries I mentioned before, this issue is being dealt with much more systematically than here in the U.S.

PLANETIZEN: Your "whole journey" approach is fascinating, that transit agencies need to plan not only for the vehicle and the station, but the parking lot and the surrounding approach to the station or stop.

LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS: There are studies in Chicago that find block-by-block that more crime tends to happen in the vicinity of the station than within the station, and my own studies show the same. And that's something more transit agencies need to look at. It's admittedly more difficult to implement, it's easier to protect the enclosed vehicle or the enclosed station. But there are so many components to today's transit stations, like park-and-ride lots, escalators, elevators. They really need to look at all of these components and how they link to the rest of the city, because a lot of the crime happens in these in-between spaces.

PLANETIZEN: So imagine I'm a transportation planner, and I'm reading your interview right now on Planetizen. What would you urge me to do?

LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS: To incorporate women's voices into the planning process. I was asked to speak at a conference recently specifically on women's issues and transportation, and there were some women transportation planners there who were saying, "Well, we have to look only to universal needs." I respectfully disagree, because there are specific needs. Transportation planners really need to look at women's fears in transportation settings and know that there are things that they can do to if not completely eliminate but reduce these fears. These solutions involve policy, design, policing, and outreach and education.

Of course, this costs money. But my work and the work of others has shown that crime comes at hotspots: not every area is equally unsafe. Transit agencies do audits every year, and they know where these hotspots are. So when we talk about limited resources, they could concentrate their resources on these areas.

The full report can be downloaded from http://www.transweb.sjsu.edu/MTIportal/research/publications/summary/mti0901.html

Photo is courtesy of Flickr user net_efekt http://www.flickr.com/people/wheatfields/

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Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris is a Professor of Urban Planning in the Department of Urban Planning at UCLA. She is the co-author of the book Urban Design Downtown: Poetics and Politics of Form (University of California Press, 1998), the co-editor of the book Jobs and Economic Development in Minority Communities (Temple University Press, 2006). Her latest book, Sidewalks: Conflict and Negotiation over Public Space (Urban and Industrial Environments), about the social uses of sidewalks was published by the MIT Press in 2009.