MTI’s Counter-Terrorism Expert Asks if a Moscow-type Transit Attack Could Happen in the U.S

Public transit’s “open system” leaves it vulnerable, even though many planned attacks have been prevented, says Brian Michael Jenkins

San Jose, Calif., March 29, 2010 – Officials at the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) say that the deadly subway attacks in Moscow today underscore the inherent vulnerability of public surface transportation. MTI says that, while the U.S. understandably devotes most of its security resources to protecting commercial airliners, Americans must understand that terrorists do the bulk of their killing on trains and buses. The organization’s database currently documents more than 2,000 separate attacks on surface transportation – 1,223 involving bombs and incendiaries – since 1970. These attacks caused 6,190 deaths and approximately 19,000 injuries.

“In 2004, two female suicide bombers brought down two airliners in Russia, killing 88 people,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a counter-terrorism expert who directs MTI’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (NTSCOE). “But since 9/11, terrorist bombers in Russia carried out 65 attacks on trains and buses, killing 273 people and injuring 649.”

Mr. Jenkins says that global statistics are even more dramatic. Available data indicates 125 deaths from eight attacks on airliners and commercial airports outside of war zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan since 9/11. However, during this same time there have been nearly 700 attacks on surface transportation, causing 2,500 deaths and nearly 10,000 injuries. These figures derive from a new database that MTI’s NTSCOE is developing.

Could it happen here?

In 1997, New York City police interrupted a terrorist plot to carry out a suicide bombing on the city’s subway system. In 2003, authorities discovered a terrorist cell in Bahrain planning a chemical attack on that same subway system. Law enforcement also prevented attacks planned in 2004 to bomb the Herald Square Station in mid-town Manhattan, in 2006 for subway tunnels under the Hudson River, in 2008 for the Long Island Railroad, and just this year on the New York subway system.

“Easy access, confined environments, and large concentrations of people enhance the effectiveness of explosives and unconventional weapons,” Mr. Jenkins says. “That and the terror created by attacking city lifelines make public surface transportation an attractive target for terrorists who are determined to kill in quantity and without discrimination. These are not symbolic attacks meant as protests. They are lethal assaults meant to kill.”

He pointed out similar attacks on Madrid’s commuter trains, on London’s subways and a bus, and seven bombs on Mumbai’s commuter trains. In total, 452 people were killed and 3,000 were injured.

Mr. Jenkins says that public surface transportation is difficult to protect because it is an open system. Large volumes of passengers, the need to avoid long delays, and limited resources rule out imposing an aviation security model. In addition, surface transportation commands only a small fraction of what the federal government spends on aviation security. Cities, too, are strapped for cash.

Unlike aviation security, which is regulated and run by the federal government, Mr. Jenkins says, surface transportation security is a local matter. System operators have increased closed-circuit television surveillance, deployed more security personnel, and taken other steps in accord with local perceptions of threat.

“While 100 percent passenger screening is unrealistic, some systems have implemented selective passenger screening, where some randomly selected passengers voluntarily submit their bags and backpacks for brief inspection,” says Mr. Jenkins. “In a diverse society extremely sensitive to profiling and privacy protection, selective screening must be carefully planned and closely managed to maintain public acceptance. However, it remains a useful option where, as in the wake of the Moscow attacks, subway and train systems are taking security up a notch to discourage copycats and malicious pranksters and to reassure passengers.”

Mr. Jenkins says that passengers themselves can play an important role in protecting themselves on transit. First, they should not over-react. Public surface transportation remains safer than the most risky thing they are likely to do – drive an automobile. Passengers also have a right to expect security and a responsibility to respect security measures. Regular riders also recognize routine activities on their routes, and they know what doesn’t fit. They should promptly report packages, bags, and other objects left behind, as well as any suspicious activity. And they should be prepared to give an accurate description of suspects and events. Cell phone cameras can be especially useful.

How selective screening works is the subject of three recent MTI reports, Selective Screening of Rail Passengers; Rail Passenger Selective Screening Summit; and Supplement to MTI Study on Selective Passenger Screening in the Mass Transit Rail Environment. Each of these may be downloaded at no cost from the active links, or go to www.mti.sjsu.edu, click on “Research” and “Publications,” then scroll down for the reports.

ABOUT BRIAN MICHAEL JENKINS

Mr. Jenkins is an international authority on terrorism and sophisticated crime. He directs MTI’s research on protecting surface transportation against terrorist attacks. He is also a senior advisor to the president of RAND. From 1989-98, Mr. Jenkins was deputy chairman of Kroll Associates, an international investigative and consulting firm. Before that, he was chairman of RAND’s Political Science Department, where he also directed research on political violence.

He has a BA in fine arts and a Masters Degree in history, both from UCLA. He studied in Mexico and Guatemala, where he was a Fulbright Fellow and received a fellowship from the Organization of American States. Mr. Jenkins was a paratrooper and a captain in the Green Berets, serving in Vietnam and the Dominican Republic. He returned to Vietnam as a member of the Long Range Planning Task Group, receiving the Department of the Army's highest award for his service. He authored several articles, reports and books, including International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict and Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Report on Historic Resources Information Management in Large Transportation Agencies

Research Associate Eric Ingbar has documented the ways to create uniform, enterprise-wide information management for cultural resources

SAN JOSE, Calif., March 29 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published A Case Study of Enterprise Historic Resources Information Management in Large Transportation Agencies. The study, conducted by information systems professional Eric E. Ingbar, defines how California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) district office information systems for historic resources can and cannot be used to create an agency-wide information management model for those resources. The results range from findings specific to Caltrans and its district offices to general findings that can apply to any transportation agency considering an enterprise-wide system for managing cultural resources.

Every transportation agency in the nation manages historic resources, including historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, buildings, structures, objects, routes, landscapes, and districts. The goal is to prevent damage and to mitigate unavoidable damage. To track known resources, transportation agencies often keep local files in many forms, rely upon external information sources (e.g. state-level historic preservation agencies), and depend upon local staff expertise.

"Enterprise systems are generally more efficient than individual office systems within the same organization," said Mr. Ingbar. "First, staff time and effort can be minimized because training, procedures, and workflow follow a single model. Agency staff can move from one office to another without re-training. Second, because information is stored and presented in consistent, appropriate ways, the work is more efficient. Unique pockets of information become more widely available, and redundancy is eliminated. Third, technical support time and costs can be reduced because a single infrastructure is maintained, rather than multiple computer systems."

Drawbacks also exist. Because the nature of these systems is to make information more uniform, locally valuable data may be lost. Individuals may feel forced to abandon tried-and-true work methods to conform to a computer system. Changing the system may become more difficult as software and procedures become larger and less easy to alter. And enterprise systems can be jeopardized if long-term support for them declines or is removed. This is especially hazardous to enterprise systems that appear to offer little operational benefit.

The free report can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click "Research" and then "Publications." Scroll down to the report.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eric E. Ingbar is a professional archaeologist and cultural resource specialist. He is a founding principal of Gnomon, Inc., a firm specializing in creating, implementing, and maintaining information systems for managing resources and infrastructure, including cultural resources, other natural resources, and proposed land uses. Mr. Ingbar and Gnomon, Inc. are primary IT consultants to many state historic preservation offices, creators of the successful large-scale pilot use of GPS and GIS within Caltrans, consultant to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for multi-agency data sharing and nationwide technical assistance, and recipients of multiple successful agency automation and study projects. He also advises two Federal Highways projects pertaining to cultural resources information automation and environmental streamlining. He earned his BA in social anthropology, with honors, from Swarthmore College in 1979, and his MA in anthropology, with honors, from the University of New Mexico in 1983.

Feb. 26, 1870: New York City Blows Subway Opportunity

1870: Inventor Alfred Ely Beach opens New York City’s first subway line, a pneumatic demonstration project in a 300-foot tunnel under Broadway.

Beach first demonstrated pneumatic transit at the 1867 American Institute Fair, and sought to build a pneumatic transit system underground to relieve surface-level congestion with a system consisting of, in Beach’s words, merely "a tube, a car, a revolving fan!"

Beach obtained permission in 1868 to build a large package-delivery tunnel under Broadway, but secretly began work on a demonstration passenger-transit system, complete with a luxuriously appointed station and passenger car.

Read the rest of the story at wired.com here.

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Emergency Management Handbook for State-Level Transportation Agencies

Edwards and Goodrich provide specific guidance and management techniques to aid emergency planning staff to create DHS-compliant systems.

San Jose, Calif., March 15, 2010 – The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published a Handbook of Emergency Management for State-Level Transportation Agencies. It addresses plans and systems mandated by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that may be applied to the state-level transportation agencies’ disaster response systems to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Specific guidance and management techniques are provided to aid emergency planning staff to create DHS-compliant systems.

State transportation agencies are required to have plans for continuity of government (COG) functions during any catastrophic disaster, as well as for continuity of operations (COOP) – continuing the essential services that they provide to citizens, government, other state agencies, and federal partners during response, recovery and mitigation phases of emergency management. These augment a state’s Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), which addresses “normal” emergencies.

“This research project was intended to lay the groundwork for establishing priorities that would lead to a mature management capability for emergencies, disasters and catastrophes,” said Frances Edwards, PhD, director of the Master of Public Administration program at San José State University. “While transportation agencies may have significant experience with ‘normal’ emergencies on the roadways, and they may work routinely with state police and fire agencies in disaster situations, this handbook will help them level up to meet DHS requirements.”

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) retained a team of emergency management research associates with significant professional experience in emergency management from the Mineta Transportation Institute’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. The team reviewed California’s first COG and COOP plans and advised Caltrans on additions and revisions to the agency’s COG and COOP plans. All this is in keeping with the latest federal guidelines and with the lessons learned from Caltrans’ participation in the 2008 Golden Guardian emergency exercises.

The handbook emphasizes that open, clear and safe roadways are essential so first responders and other emergency teams can reach their destinations. Sample chapters include “The Role of the Emergency Services Manager in a State Transportation Agency,” “The Role of the Department of Transportation Headquarters EOC,” and “The Hierarchy of Emergency Plans.”

The free handbook can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click “Research” and then “Publications.” Scroll down to the reports.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

FRANCES L. EDWARDS, MUP, PhD, CEM
Dr. Edwards is director of the Master of Public Administration program and professor of political science at San José State University. She is also a research associate of the Mineta Transportation Institute at SJSU, and she teaches emergency management in the Master of Science inTransportation Management program. In 2009 she was appointed U.S. chair for the European Union CAST Project for the development of unified training for first responders. Her most recent research has been in global supply chain security. She is recognized internationally as an emergency management and security expert. Dr. Edwards was director of the Office of Emergency Services in San José, California for 14 years, including one year as acting assistant chief, San José Fire Department. She has a PhD in public administration, a Master of urban planning, and an MA in political science (international relations).

DANIEL C. GOODRICH, MPA, CEM
Mr. Goodrich is an emergency preparedness coordinator for Lockheed Martin Corporation and an instructor and research associate for the Mineta Transportation Institute at San José State University, where he also teaches security for transportation managers. He was selected as a 2006 Fellow of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and studied Muslim terrorism in Israel at Tel Aviv University. He is a recognized expert in security and emergency response. Mr. Goodrich served in the US Marine Corps for ten years, including leadership positions in Security Forces. He holds a Master of Public Administration from San José State University and is a Certified Emergency Manager.

Mineta Transportation Institute Releases Study on Linking Highway Improvements to Changes in Land Use

Funderburg, Nixon, and Boarnet study three California counties to develop a better forecasting tool for transportation decision making

San Jose, Calif., March 15, 2010 – The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) has published Linking Highway Improvements to Changes in Land Use with Quasi-Experimental Research Design: A Better Forecasting Tool for Transportation Decision-making, which studies the ability of quasi-experimental matching techniques to address differing contexts associated with potential highway improvements and extension projects in forecasts of regional growth. This report incorporates popular regional growth forecasting models into a quasi-experimental research design that directly relates new highway investments in three California counties to changes in population and employment location, while controlling for no-build historical counterfactuals.

The strategy permits a comparison of the before-and-after tests for effects of investments on economic growth and land use in three regions that contrast how increased highway access affects development patterns. The study includes an urban center in Santa Clara County, an exurban region in Orange County, and a small town in Merced County. The need for forecasts to account for what would happen to land use in the absence of a project came to the forefront in 1997 when a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the Environmental Impact Statement for a proposed Illinois toll road was deficient because growth projections were the same in the build and no-build scenarios.

“We find that traditional forecast approaches, which lack explicit control selection, can lead to erroneous conclusions about an impact,” said Hilary Nixon, PhD, an assistant professor of urban and regional planning at San José State University. “Our forecasting tool should improve the quality and reliability of Environmental Impact Statements.”

The report’s central finding is that, while improvements in surface transportation tend to have large impacts on growth patterns, the nature of the effects is materially dependent on the context of the highway investment. The report’s models estimate that, on average, a statistically and economically significant 338 to 11,103 new Orange County jobs occurred within a typical census tract in the county’s formerly exurban region after gaining highway access when compared to no-build counterfactuals. On the other hand, the models predict a starkly different outcome as a result of a highway bypass built outside the small town of Livingston in Merced County, where the researchers found an economically and statistically significant 12 to 83 job losses per square kilometer that might be anticipated had the bypass not been built. They found no significant effects on population or employment growth that can be attributed to the new highway investments near the urban center of Santa Clara County.

Policy implications from this analysis are potentially significant, particularly as it relates to the environmental review process. The research results suggest that context is important and that the impacts on population and employment growth from infrastructure improvements are not necessarily consistent from one geographic region to another, nor from one type of project to another. As seen in the Illinois case (Sierra Club v. United States DOT, 1997), documenting the potential impact is an essential component of the review process, and better models are needed to forecast changes.

The free report can be downloaded from www.transweb.sjsu.edu. Click “Research” and then “Publications.” Scroll down to the reports.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

RICHARD G. FUNDERBURG, PhD
Dr. Funderburg is assistant professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Iowa. His research investigates an array of factors that attract economic activities to both developing and advantaged regions. He earned a PhD in planning, policy, and design from University of California, Irvine and he holds MPPA and BA degrees from California State University.

HILARY NIXON, PhD
Dr. Nixon is an assistant professor of urban and regional planning at San José State University. Her research and teaching interests in environmental planning and policy focus on the relationship between environmental attitudes and behavior, particularly related to waste management, and linkages between transportation and the environment. She has a BA from the University of Rochester in environmental management and a PhD in planning, policy, and design from the University of California, Irvine.

MARLON G. BOARNET, PhD
Dr. Boarnet is professor of planning, policy, and design and economics at the University of California, Irvine, where he has been on faculty since 1991. Previously, he was chair of the Department of Planning, Policy, and Design at UC Irvine. He earned a PhD from Princeton University. His research focuses on the inter- and intra-metropolitan distribution of economic activity, the links between transportation policy and economic development, local economic development policy, and land use. He is widely published and serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Planning Literature and Papers in Regional Science.